In the shifting landscape of cryptocurrency investment, renowned analyst Lyn Alden has recalibrated her Bitcoin forecast with tempered optimism. While still projecting Bitcoin to reach approximately $85,000 by the end of 2025, this represents a downward revision from her previous, more bullish outlook. The primary catalyst for this adjustment appears to be the announcement of potential US tariffs set to begin in February 2025, introducing new uncertainties into global markets.
Alden’s analysis hinges on her view of Bitcoin as a “Global Liquidity Barometer” – a concept supported by data showing a striking 0.94 correlation between Bitcoin’s price and global M2 money supply from 2013 to 2024. The digital currency moves in tandem with global liquidity 83% of the time over 12-month periods, suggesting that monetary policy shifts may impact Bitcoin more profoundly than its much-discussed halving cycles.
The tariff situation casts a long shadow over market expectations. Like a weather vane spinning before a storm, Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading nature makes it particularly reactive to geopolitical tensions, often plunging dramatically during black swan events. Investors watching their screens during such moments might feel like they’re riding a financial rollercoaster without restraints.
Global uncertainty turns Bitcoin into a geopolitical seismograph, instantly recording market tremors while investors endure the violent swings.
Despite these concerns, Alden maintains there’s still a “good chance” Bitcoin could touch the symbolic $100,000 threshold by late 2025. Her analysis of the MVRV ratio indicates the market hasn’t reached its multi-year cycle top, leaving room for substantial growth. This cautious optimism stands against a backdrop of historical cycles that saw peak-to-peak gains ranging from 20x to 50x.
Interestingly, Alden suggests Bitcoin could potentially decouple from tech indices like the Nasdaq 100 under specific conditions – particularly if global liquidity remains robust while US equities struggle. This scenario echoes the 2003-2007 period when commodities thrived despite stock market challenges, painting Bitcoin as gold’s digital cousin in the family of alternative assets. The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has already demonstrated institutional appetite for cryptocurrency exposure, with funds acquiring over 515,000 Bitcoin in their first year of operation.
